“The Fed doesn’t want to say this explicitly, but it is actually saying (in not so many words) that a recession is very likely coming our way,” economist David Rosenberg said in a note on Thursday. In previous soft landings, the Fed usually cut rates by 75 basis points, but they’re forecasting a 150 basis-point […]
The Fed’s Rate-Cut Projections Are Pointing to an Imminent Recession, Economist Says Read More »
While geopolitical uncertainty is important for gold, there are other factors we need to pay attention to: growing fears of a credit event leading to a recession. The chaos in the Middle East caused by the Israel-Hamas war is providing solid momentum for gold but there is more going on in the market than just
The Gold Market to Jay Powell: ‘Bring It On’ Read More »
Here are some historical examples. The 1980s S&L crisis, Black Monday in 1987, The 2000 dot-com crash, & 08 Financial… A study published in May of rate increases for 17 developed countries over 150 years concluded that “monetary policy rate hikes that were preceded by a series of cuts (or a long period of low
With Interest Rates Up, Get Ready for Financial Drama Read More »
I’m not sure if the world is prepared for 7%. Deutsche Bank economists put the odds of a U.S. recession “near 100%,” and warned that “avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented.” Bank of America said last week that investors were dumping stocks at the fastest pace since the end of 2022 amid concern that higher-for-longer rates would raise
“$1 trln in new leveraged credit last five years faces its day of reckoning,” Bank of America strategist Yuri Seliger said in a note on Friday. Most of that debt has been created by below-investment grade companies through high yield loans or bonds. Around $400 billion assets are considered to be in “pre-distress,” while $150
