The most deeply inverted part of the U.S. yield curve is one that hasn’t sent a false signal about the prospects of a U.S. recession in more than a half-century of research. That’s the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, the large difference between the two rates is pointing to the likelihood of a […]
“Every rate hiking cycle of the last 70 years has ended in recession (c. 80% of the time) and/or a financial crisis… His comments came after three U.S. banks have collapsed, as federal authorities organized major banks to deposit $30 billion into First Republic Bank FRC, +3.57% to stave off a fourth. “At this stage,
“We have never escaped a recession from this point,” JPMorgan economists are telling clients about one indicator, noting stocks have never hit a low before the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates. Despite growing hopes the U.S. may ultimately avoid an anxiously anticipated recession, JPMorgan economists are warning clients that a flurry of indicators are
Stagflation is Now the Consensus Expectation of Asset Managers for 2023 “Bridgewater Associates is the world’s largest hedge fund. Bridgewater’s chief investment strategist, Rebecca Patterson, is another of the voices saying that stagflation will be the economy’s base case through at least the near term. That’s not all she’s been saying, however. Patterson also has
“Gold is a Stagflation-Fighting Asset” Read More »
